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The Phantom Load Index

Requested vs. credible large-load demand, by region. Updated monthly.
RegionRequestedCredibility readStatus
ERCOT~474 GW~14% credible — worst duplicate-filing distortion in the countryInterconnection pause pending statewide audit
PJM55–100 GW by '30–'37~50% credible — strongest financial-commitment screens§206 tariff reform proceeding open
Dominion (VA)~70 GWQueue ≈ 3× all-time system peakGS-5 tariff auto-enrollment from 2027; $1.5M/MW collateral
Georgia Power50.9 GW pipeline15.6 GW contracted — pipeline shrank 6 GW in one quarter as phantom exitedContract-based; no public queue
MISOformingExpedited large-load lane in design; most requests want power in 18–36 monthsProcess forming
US total1,066 GW~28% will be served (~298 GW)≈ 768 GW of phantom demand

Sources: RTO/utility filings, Wood Mackenzie via Bloomberg (Aug 2026), Rystad, Carbon Direct, state proceedings. Demo data — snapshot as of August 20, 2026.

The Permission Map

Where jurisdictions stand. Deep-coded where the pipeline meets friction.
STATEWIDE ACTIONS2 states paused

Texas: grid-connection pause pending audit (Aug 2026). New York: 1-year moratorium on 50 MW+ environmental permits (EO 62, Jul 2026).

LOCAL116 moratoriums

Plus 69 outright bans. Mid-2026 wave: Seattle, Minneapolis, Denver, Spokane, Broomfield, Prince George's Co., Sarasota Co., Reno (into 2027).

ORDINANCE TRENDParameters hardening

Setbacks to 1,000 ft; night limits to 45 dBA; dBC low-frequency metrics spreading; per-facility MW caps and closed-loop cooling mandates appearing.

INCENTIVES28 states curbing

Of 38 states with DC tax incentives, 28 introduced 2026 curb bills; AZ, IL, OH paused programs; VA added a $0.011/kWh consumption tax.

White Papers

Monthly. Gated by email; free.
Nº 1 · CURRENTThe Phantom Queue

How much of the 1,066 GW is real — RTO by RTO, with the duplicate-filing forensics that separate demand from noise.

Get it via the Letter →
Nº 2 · NEXTThe Backtest Book

Eight documented project failures, re-screened with information available at the time. Eight flags. Full evidence files.

Preview →
Nº 3 · SOONThe 84-Month Problem

The time-to-power league table, what it does to underwriting, and where the map is quietly improving.

Subscribe for release →
Why give this away?

Because the market runs on guesses, and we'd rather it run on evidence. The paid version of these datasets goes deeper — parcel-level, de-duplicated, continuously watched — inside our screens and retainers. The free layer keeps everyone honest, including us.